“Politics is not the art of the possible. It consists in choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable” John Kenneth Galbraith
In the last quarter century, every general election has brought about a churning of its own in the political arena. The trend started in the 10th general elections, which saw a mushrooming of regional parties. As many as 219 parties contested in 10th and 11th general elections, but only 31 succeeded in winning seats. The trend of growing regional parties and their impact on the Indian politics became evident for the first time in the formation of National Front in 1989, with V P Singh as Prime Minister. However, caste ‘Re-engineering’ (Mandal Commission) and internal fighting led to the fall of V P Singh Govt. in less than a year. Singh was succeeded by Chandrashekhar who led a minority government for a short period lasting little over six month. Another attempt was made at forming a multi-party alliance in 1996, which too experienced two short-lived governments in as many years under United Front.
Ever since Narendra Modi was anointed as Prime Ministerial candidate of BJP in Sep. 2013, rival political parties, particularly regional parties, stepped up efforts to stitch up an alternative front to challenge both the national parties – Congress and BJP in the 16th general elections. In late Feb. 2014 eleven parties announced to contest the Lok Sabha elections together to provide an alternative to the Congress-led UPA and the BJP-led NDA – yet another shot at a Third Front. Among those who met for the much publicised meet in Delhi were the Left parties, Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and Mulayam Singh Yadav‘s Samajwadi Party. Mulayam Singh Yadav even boasted, “We are 11 parties now. We might be 15 soon… together we will do it.” But, there were few notable absences. When the non-Congress, non-BJP Third Front was declared in Delhi on February 25, Orissa chief minister Naveen Patnaik was conspicuous by his absence. Political observers thought the real reason Naveen Patnaik was keeping his alliance options open, was because an enquiry was instituted by central government against the Patnaik govt. in a huge mining scam and maintaining a “Equidistance from Congress and BJP” stance would keep the inquiry commission hounds at bay. Though, AIDMK joined the front, its supremo Jayalalitha stayed away from the meet and sent a senior party functionary (She too announced a ‘Grand Alliance with Left parties in Tamil Nadu, but it disintegrated within weeks). Another important regional party which pooh-poohed the idea of a Third Front was Mamata Banerjee led TMC.
The rationale behind forming a rainbow coalition was as simple to understand, as it was difficult to maintain. In 1996 Congress and BJP together won 300 of the Lok Sabha’s 543 seats while the remaining 243 were shared by 29 other parties. In 1998 too, between them, Congress and BJP bagged 322 seats. Earlier, during 60s, 70s & 80s, coalitions based on pre-election alliances had worked successfully in states like west Bengal, Kerala, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Haryana. If various regional parties could agree to cooperate for purposes of contesting an election to mutually benefit by collectively clearing election thresholds, or otherwise benefiting for government formation after elections, it was worth trying in general elections. Their common objective was to achieve plurality, but this did little in attaining ideological integration. While regional parties like SP, BSP and RJD were caste mobilisers, Left parties were pursuing different agenda and southern parties were more focused on federalism. In all such experiments, the inevitable happened sooner than expected:
- In 1989, when Devi Lal suggested the name of V P Singh as Prime Minister, another big Leader Chandrashekhar was both surprised and dismayed as he expected to be named for the PM position. So, when V P Singh government fell, he grabbed the opportunity & became Prime Minister with just 64 MPs and outside support of Congress party.
- Similarly, shaky United Front (1996-98) struggled to retain power for little over 17 months and even during this unstable tenure changed leadership twice.
- Even in current election season, when Third Front was launched with lot of fanfare, an important possible constituent – Naveen Patnaik of BJD, stayed away and many observers took his distancing from the Third Front as a message to the BJP that all might not be lost between them.
- Mamata Banerjee of TMC too appeared unfazed by the recently formed Third Front which she dismissed as an unviable “Tired front” and was confident that a federal front will rule the country after the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.
One of the major reasons why such pre-poll alliances fail in India is the voter apathy towards such formations. Indian voters want a strong and stable government at the center and are always skeptical about the ability of such alliances to stay together. Voters feel “Third Front” is just a coalition of convenience between disparate forces and interest groups. That is why the ‘strike rate ‘of such alliances has been so abysmal. Voters perceive that lack of a common ideology among the constituents would lead to government being pulled in different directions and this infighting would eventually lead to fall of the government. Voters also dismiss the idea of smaller parties coming together only to keep both Congress and BJP out of power. Another factor which leads to early demise of a Third Front Govt. is that, lacking in numbers, they end up taking outside support from either of the national parties, usually Congress, who is notorious for pulling the rug from under the ruling party’s feet. Indians have not yet forgotten how Charan Singh’s 6 month old minority government collapsed in one fell swoop when Congress president Indira Gandhi withdrew support. Having seen the worst ever functioning of a government under UPA2, India voters would least expect a government bogged down under the weight of coalition politics and become ineffective and indecisive like its immediate predecessor. Then there is also uncertainty surrounding the new alliance’s candidate for the post of prime minister. Every regional party head wants to become the Prime Minister.
Coalition politics (with two major blocs each led by a national party) is here to stay for a long time to come. But, smaller parties coming together to form a stable government is still a distant dream. As Narendra Modi, at a recent election rally, compared the “Third Front” to “migratory birds which will vanish after the elections.”
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My old memories of persuing politics in 1980`s have come alive on reading your blog.I was witness to many episodes in politics.There have been Prime Ministers chosen by the people but still India have had some P.M`s who managed by bungling to become the P.M.Charan Singh,Chandrasekhar,Gowda,Gujral and presently Dr.Manmohan Singh are examples of becoming P.M.by bungling.They provide impetus to leaders to come together as Third Front to take a chance to become P.M.
Yes, very true. Third front is like chasing a mirage.
Relevant in the present times. The Coalition Dharma ( as termed by Our Prime Minister ) has a great maintenance as issue as correctly pointed out. In a committee of ambitious people it finally ends up in managing through Blackmail or by Active Silence. A Bane for Democracy. But Majoritarian Governments tend to be autocratic. So it is a choice between the Devil and the Deep Sea!